Contraception Conundrum by Political Science Professor Michael New, deals with this problem: contraception reduces the probability of pregnancy. So, if we want to reduce the number of abortions, we should increase the use of contraception. This argument in some form or another, is at the heart of the annual political crisis over federal funding of sex ed or abstinence education.
But Prof New shows that the argument is based on a misunderstanding. It is true that the birth control pill, for instance, reduces the probability that any particular act of intercourse will result in pregnancy. But it does not follow that promoting the use of The Pill will reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies, and hence the number of abortions. If increasing use of contraception increases the number of sexual encounters, then we could see an increase, not a decrease, in the number of unplanned pregnancies. This is especially true if the availability of contraception changes the type of partner one chooses, and the situations in which one has sex. In that case, we will almost certainly end up with an increase in the number of “unplanned pregnancies,” since all of them are unplanned. In fact, you could make the case that the whole point of The Pill is to allow for sexual activity in situations that cannot ordinarily support a pregnancy.
Prof New:

If sexually active individuals used birth control more often, there would likely be fewer unwanted pregnancies. However, easier access to contraceptives might encourage even more sexual activity among unmarried people. This is especially the case if contraceptives are made available to populations which include a high percentage of sexually inactive people, such as young teens. It would send powerful messages about the sort of sexual behavior that is both expected and acceptable.

The increase in sexual activity among teens during the 1960s provides good evidence of this. The birth-control pill was first approved by the FDA in early 1961 and put on the market later that same year. A study by the Alan Guttmacher Institute (hardly a pro-life outfit) found that women who turned 15 between the mid-1960s and early 1970s were more likely to engage in sexual activity at a younger age than their counterparts who turned 15 between the mid-1950s and early 1960s. Furthermore, the Guttmacher study partly attributes this increased sexual activity to the availability of the birth-control pill. The widespread use of birth control in the 1960s seems to have shifted the culture in such a way as to hasten rather than delay the liberalization of America’s abortion laws.

This article originally appearred on National Review On-line.