A recent episode of The Dr. J Show, hosted by Ruth Institute president, Dr. Jennifer Roback Morse, featured noted author and demographer Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt. He explained the ramifications of worldwide falling fertility, also known as Demographic Winter.
The United Nations Population Division says three-quarters of the world’s population now live in countries with below-replacement fertility – those which aren’t having enough babies to replace current population.
Worldwide, population continues to grow, not because we’re having more births but fewer deaths due to improved health care.
Demographic Winter leads to economic stagnation and potential collapse. Another problem is fewer workers to care for a growing elderly population, possibly recquiring “institutionalized day care” for the elderly.
Eberstadt noted: “Over 30% of the women born in Japan today won’t have children; 50% will never have grandchildren.” So many elderly Japanese are dying alone there’s a name for it, ‘lonely death,’ and a whole industry has arisen to clean up the remains.
China also has a coming demographic crisis, due in part to the one-child policy in effect for decades. Eberstadt observed: “In China, as far back as anyone can recall, extended families have always been the ultimate safety net. Soon, a lot of Chinese won’t have them to fall back on.”
This worldwide problem of Demographic Winter will continue to grow unless there is a cultural shift toward having more children.
Learn more by watching this video and checking out the Ruth Institute’s Demographic Winter Resource Center.
Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC. He writes extensively on demography, development, and international security. His latest book is “Men Without Work: Post Pandemic Edition” (2022 Templeton Press).